The War in Iran: A World Reshaped, and What It Means for South Africa

Based on remarks by political economist Ronak Gopaldas at the Hortforum meeting, March 2026

By Elise-Marie Steenkamp

Three weeks into the war in Iran, the world is grappling with a conflict that is far more complex — and potentially far more enduring — than most anticipated. Speaking at the Hortforum meeting in March 2026, political economist and self-described “corporate sangoma” Ronak Gopaldas offered a sobering analysis of the war’s dimensions, its key actors, and its real-world consequences for economies far beyond the Middle East, including South Africa.

A Regional Conflict or a World War in the Making?

The initial question Gopaldas raises is the most essential: Is this a regional conflict, or is it the start of something much larger? With Iran exhibiting signs of horizontal expansion and the possibility of US Marines being deployed on the ground, the path ahead is highly uncertain. Trump’s unpredictability — his threats and bravado — has caused confusion rather than clarity, and as Gopaldas notes, there is no clear exit route in sight.

What makes this conflict particularly dangerous is that the end goals of the various actors are not just different — they are conflicting.

Iran does not need to achieve military victory. Its approach focuses on patience and exerting pressure. By targeting economic centres such as Dubai and Qatar, and maintaining the conflict, Iran constrains global markets. It is aware that it is outgunned in direct military strength, but it only needs to remain engaged. So far, this strategy has proven to be highly effective.

Israel perceives this as an existential battle. It will not cease. Its objective is to eradicate what it considers the main source of regional terrorism, and it shows no interest in half-measures.

The United States faces a difficult situation. Washington underestimated the nature of its adversary. Iran uses cheap, effective drones, while the US relies on complex, costly weapons systems. Each day the conflict continues depletes American financial and political resources — and with mid-term elections approaching, Trump wants this resolved quickly. The longer it goes on, the more damage it does to Washington’s image.

The Gulf states — especially Dubai and Qatar — are seeing their reputations take a hit. Protected by American military presence, they are still caught in the crossfire, with people and capital starting to leave.

Four Theatres of War

Gopaldas identifies four distinct theatres in which this conflict is playing out, each with its own logic.

Psychologically, Iran has taken the lead. By shaping the narrative on oil prices and maintaining market tension, it fosters fear and uncertainty that extend far beyond the battlefield.

Economically, the impacts are already being felt worldwide. Oil prices are rising, and the ripple effects — inflation, energy shortages, and disruptions to fertiliser and food imports — are undermining economies across the globe.

In the information war, both sides have been clear: neither Israel nor Iran intends to back down. Iran has already indicated that the Strait of Hormuz will be open only to friendly nations — a declaration with significant implications for global trade.

Militarily, there is a profound mismatch. As Gopaldas frames it, the two sides are playing different games entirely — chess versus checkers. The military dimension, while deadly, may actually be the least decisive in determining outcomes. The US has a poor track record in prolonged conflicts — Iraq, Afghanistan — and Europe has little appetite to participate.

What Does This Mean for South Africa?

For South Africa, the war in Iran is not a distant abstraction. Gopaldas outlines several direct channels of impact.

Global oil prices will push up the cost of everything — fuel, food, transport, and manufactured goods. Shortages of imported food, fertiliser, and diesel will stoke inflation and could alter the credit cycle. A strengthening US dollar — a near-certain consequence of the conflict — is bad news for the rand and, by extension, for South African consumers and businesses.

Trade routes are also vulnerable. Supply chain disruptions will necessitate rerouting ships, increasing costs and causing delays. Gopaldas poses an interesting question: could South African ports assume a more prominent role as global shipping adjusts? It presents a potential short-term opportunity worth monitoring, even if the overall shock to the global economy remains largely negative.

Africa’s major trading partners in the Gulf and Asia are among the hardest hit. China, for example, routes 80 to 90 percent of its oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz — a staggering dependency that leaves it very vulnerable to any extended disruption. When those economies struggle, African economies feel the ripple effects.

The Bigger Picture: A World Order Unravelling

Gopaldas places this conflict within a broader geopolitical shift. The old world order has disappeared. The United States — once the protector of global stability — has become, as he states, the undertaker. Washington has forsaken the rules-based international system in favour of blatant transactionalism: what matters is interest, not values.

For South Africa, which has a vested interest in a world where international law protects smaller nations, this is troubling. The weak suffer most when rules collapse. South Africa’s best posture, Gopaldas suggests, is to sit tight through the midterms, lobby through private business channels, diversify its trading relationships, and avoid being drawn into conflicts where it has limited leverage.

The genie, he warns, is out of the bottle. This conflict is likely to last longer than most people think, and its real-world implications — economic, geopolitical, and social — will reshape the landscape for years to come.

• Ronak Gopaldas is a political economist and risk analyst. These remarks were delivered at the Hortforum meeting, March 2026.