Past and Future | Pome and Stone Fruit Perspectives

As the 2023/24 season draws to a close it is a good time to take a step back and reminisce.

What was the past season like for pome and stone fruit?

The total 2024 apple export volumes are projected at 48.42 million eq. cartons (12.5kg eq. cartons) which is 11% up compared to the previous season. Pear export volumes are projected at 20.06 million cartons (12.5kg eq. cartons); +8% year-on-year. This is a recovery on the 2023 season which was negatively impacted by weather conditions.

Apple varieties mostly affected were Fuji (-2% yoy);  Pink Lady® volumes were negatively affected by poor colour development, down 10%. YTD inspection volumes in EGVV and Ceres regions are up 2% and 38% compared to the previous seasons (just keep the hail damage of last year in mind for Ceres indicating a recovery on the 2022 season). Far East & Asia is still the biggest export apple market with 33% of market share. India specifically has seen substantial growth in volumes, with just under 3mil apple cartons exported YTD compared to last year’s 1.9mil eq. cartons (+55% yoy). Africa at 23% and the UK at 15% followed by the Middle East a 12%. YTD volumes exported to Europe and Russia have seen a noteworthy increase compared to the previous season.

Overall, the pear market is still positive. Europe is still our biggest export market with 34% of all exports. This is also a 25% increase year-on-year.  Far East Asia and the Middle East are at 20% and 17% market shares respectively. Packham’s Triumph had a lighter crop and was also impacted by the wet spring conditions resulting in russet. Forelle and Abate Fetel volumes realised better volumes and were respectively up by 19% by 26%. Summer pear exports also performed better than last year with significant increases in Rosemarie, Cheeky, Celina and Comice.

Apricots (2023/24 season): Total export volumes = 480 00 eq. cartons (4.75kg/eq. carton) were down by 19% from the previous season.  This is the second-lowest export crop of apricots in the last 15 years. The biggest production area (Klein Karoo) had frost damage that had a huge impact on the overall export crop.  The decreasing planting trend that has been experienced since 2000 has stabilised over the last 3 seasons with a slight increase in plantings of fresh apricots, mostly late varieties.  The issue with apricots from an industry perspective remains that it has a very short season and supply window with the bulk of the product exported from Week 44 to week 49.  We have seen some investments in later varietals – however, compared to the total export crop these volumes remain low.  The majority of the volumes were exported to the Middle East (51%), Europe (26%) and the UK (22%).  19% were exported via airfreight where it can generally be anticipated that this product would have had fewer quality issues resulting from delays in logistics.

Peaches (dessert) (2023/24 season): Total export volume = 1.9 million eq. cartons (2.5kg/eq. carton)  were down -14% from the previous year (slightly below the LT average).  The decrease in volumes of dessert peaches is as a result of decreased plantings (total hectares decreased by 11% over the last 5 years) – mostly driven by the delisting of several varieties in export programmes, favouring nectarines above peaches and fruit size that was smaller in the early and mid-season category (cold spring and suddenly very hot conditions in November and December of 2023 coupled to the season being early had an impact on early/mid-season fruit size), lower production volumes in the Berg River and Ceres production regions (collectively representing 42% of hectares planted) and the rain impacting on pack-outs and marketing shifts between exports and local. Peaches were exported to the UK (39%), the Middle East (35%) and the EU (22%).  Fruit size also has a direct impact on marketing as the UK is known as a smaller fruit-size market.  Prices for good quality peaches remained throughout the season and performed well, however, logistical delays did have an impact on quality from week 52

Nectarines (2023/24 season): Total export volume = 8.77 million eq. cartons (2.5kg/eq. carton) which is a 13% increase from the previous season and the biggest nectarine export crop.  Nectarine plantings have increased significantly over the last decade growing in all supply windows but especially in the mid to late-season category and both white and yellow flesh nectarines.  Yellow flesh nectarines remain by far the biggest category.  With the late nectarine supply peak higher than the early season.  The early season impacted fruit size for the early to mid-season category.  Pack-outs were also lower as a result of the rain & hail incidents.  Late nectarine fruit size was better with good colour and increased pack-outs.  Nectarines were exported to the EU (43%), UK (36%) and Middle East (13%).  Marketing for nectarines was not smooth sailing – larger volumes linked to shipping delays had an impact.  The EU and the Middle East experiencing pressure on prices as vessels arrive simultaneously and the age of fruit, especially during peak weeks after week 52.  Chilean exports of nectarines to the EU increased by 42% YTD with significant volumes in weeks 5,6,8 and 9 to the EU (compared to historical exports) adding to the pressure in the European market.

Plums (2023/24 season): Total export volume 12.2 million eq. cartons (5.25kg/eq. carton) which was a 10% decrease from the previous year.  The decrease in export volumes was driven by a decrease in plantings with marginal orchards and non-performing orchards being removed (Berg River, Stellenbosch and Somerset West areas), Yellow plum hectares are still declining, while interspecifics gained momentum in terms of plantings.  Lower production volumes in the major producing areas (Klein Karoo – frost, Berg River & Ceres – due to cold/wet spring conditions, resulted in variability in flowering and impact on set (lighter fruit set), fruit size on early-season varieties and lower pack-out due to wind damage.  Fruit quality on the other hand was good with high sugars.  Fruit size overall was better, however, it did not make up for the loss in tonnage.  Warmer night temperatures had an impact on colour and pack-out of big varieties such as African Delight. Heat waves also had an impact on the tail end of Fortune and Laetitia plums, although no major internal quality issues were reported.  Marketing conditions were favourable with Italian Angelenos being 30% to 40% lower, resulting in an empty market with good demand for SA plums.  Initially, the market was undersupplied as a result of shipping delays at the end of last year and into January 2024.  The relatively empty market led to good sales momentum and fruit moved, so no stock build-up in overseas markets.  Good quality plums reached good prices; however, quality claims will have an impact on final returns.  SA managed to grow plum exports to the USA to over 1 million eq. cartons and this remains an opportunity for SA.  The season started earlier and also finished earlier with late plums such as African Delight, Larry Anne, Ruby Star and Angeleno export volumes also being down.

Biggest challenges

Logistics continues to be one of the biggest challenges that growers and exporters face. Weather conditions, especially wind and fog delays, also negatively impact the Port of Cape Town. The impact of erratic and intense climatic conditions remains an unforeseen risk.

Pome fruit is exported all year round, the product can handle a bit of a delay far better than stone fruit. If the right temperature protocol is put in place, pome fruit can be stored longer. Stone fruit on the other hand is much more perishable and any delays in the logistical chain have a huge impact on fruit quality and resultant quality claims.

Industry is carefully monitoring the logistical situation and participate in all forums to prioritise and improve the planning for the coming season.  Transnet is in the process of implementing its mid-life refurbishment plan regarding equipment at the Port of Cape Town.  To date, all the deadlines that were provided to the industry on the replacement of equipment have been met with several new equipment to be delivered early in the 2025 season.  This will only be operational during the pome and citrus export season with no immediate impact on the current stone and table grape export season.

Although there are improvements, which the industry welcomes, we remain carefully optimistic and are planning for another challenging season, especially during the peak weeks at the Cape Town Container Terminal. We are however realistic that there is no quick fix to a crisis that has been in the making for almost 10 years of neglect. The message to our growers remains to ensure alternative plans during peak times with the use of other ports and SRVs to alleviate the pressure during critical times.  The Port of Cape Town has been dealing with the breakdown of equipment and is trying to ensure that they have feasible plans in place to function as efficiently as possible during pressure weeks. Better communication and planning processes have also been put in place.

Current season

The current 2024/2025 stone fruit season has growers and exporters carefully optimistic. This past winter brought much-needed rainfall, filling irrigation dams. However, a long, cold and wet spring impacted flowering and fruit sets in certain production areas. The weather challenges did not end there, as specific parts of the Western Cape were hit by sleet, hail and frost in early October. Early nectarines and peaches were affected the most. The Berg River region also experienced a brief heatwave during the flowering of some plum varieties. No major weather events have occurred in the Klein Karoo, which is our main apricot production region.

Apricots are expected to increase by 9% year-on-year, nectarines by 4% and plums by 8%. Only peaches are expected to decrease by 7% compared to the previous season.

The majority of fruit types are experiencing stabilization and consolidation of hectares. Older trees are being removed. Some are replaced with pome and or stone fruit and some are replaced with different commodities. Only cherries and nectarines have shown year-on-year growth with the growth in nectarine plantings also expected to stabilise. Apple orchards are being replaced with newer cultivar strains; pears are seeing a continued decrease in William Bon Chretien, but a move towards early-season blush-summer pears. Being early in the market provides an opportunity for better pricing as well.

Apricots remain in demand, with limited availability from SA. Fresh apricots now make up 50% of the total hectares. Peaches specifically dessert peaches have experienced a gradual decline in the last couple of years. Hectares are on a downward trend (-10% year on year). The only increases in exports would be from the few orchards that are now coming into full production and optimal weather. Plums have stabilized and are showing a slight decrease in terms of hectares, although volumes are anticipated to increase compared to the last 3-4 years given the focus on higher yielding varieties and bigger sized fruit coupled with higher density plantings and better packouts through the use of nets. The drought impact from 2018/19 was severe in the Klein Karoo region which is the biggest plum producing region. Many hectares had fallen during the drought years, and not all growers were able to recover. Numerous plum orchards were not replaced and the growers that could replace them slowed down the timing in which replacement took place.

Nectarine hectares are still increasing year-on-year although the rate has now slowed down. Investment in hectares was mainly in the newer, higher-yielding varieties. The mid-season cultivars specifically have seen an increase. This is to help ensure a more even supply of fruit into the market.

Last season –  in comparison

The market was relatively empty during the 2023/24 stone fruit season. Chile, our biggest Southern Hemisphere competitor, also experienced logistical and production issues. Whilst they compete in the mid-to-late part of our season in terms of plums, SA was able to supply the market with the fruit needed even though our late season was down compared to the same time the previous season.

The current stone fruit season: The EU and UK markets were relatively empty as our exports commenced. Prices should be in line and possibly higher than last season. The market is eager for the South African stone fruit season to take off. The EU and UK remain the main markets for all stone fruit with the Middle East also receiving more fruit each season. Exports to the USA are estimated to continue to grow.

The industry is currently gaining market access for stone fruit (excluding cherries) in the Chinese market. Chinese officials visited South Africa the first week of December. The goal is to ship our first stone fruit to China in the 2025/26 season.

Pome Fruit volumes, especially apples, continue to grow in the Far East and Asian markets. Although Africa is still a big and important market for our growers, FE&Asia has seen year-on-year growth. Apple exports to India have reached nearly 3 mil eq. cartons thus far in 2024 – 1 million cartons more, compared to the previous season. Market access to Thailand for apples is expected to be achieved before the end of 2024.

Profitability

The profitability of growers is still under pressure mostly due to lower production volumes and increased logistical costs to ensure that we can service the market. The necessity to make alternative plans to ensure that our stone fruit still reaches its planned destination in optimum condition is increasing logistical costs that our competitors don’t have.  Although profitability is still under pressure we have seen positive movements in this space with input costs normalising after the Covid pandemic and the disruptions in the supply chain. We are cautiously optimistic about the 2024/25 stone fruit season from a price perspective. We are entering a relatively empty market, we are expecting average to below-average volumes and we are hopeful of better functioning ports. The next 8-12 months will remain challenging from a logistical view, but we are very optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook for both pome and stone fruit.

Competitiveness

Growers need to ensure that the fruit produced is of excellent quality, the right size and colour that the market wants, and most importantly, taste great. Managing potential logistical issues albeit at a greater cost to minimise quality claims.  Focus on increasing efficiencies, especially the use of labour and improved class 1 packout and focus on what producers can control.